The overall odds ratio for family history of any autoimmune disease ranges from 1.4 to 2.0 across studies, suggesting shared genetic susceptibility and potentially common environmental triggers.
Thanks for this article. My sister and I have MS, our father had type one diabetes. My first cousin has Ms and my dad believed he had two cousins with MS and one with ME. We have identified a family line where the risk is the highest. Our family is from southwest Ireland. Should we be be putting our children on any supplements or doing anything else to try and protect them from developing MS? Many thanks for all your work on this. I will share it with my fanily.
Re: "Should we be be putting our children on any supplements or doing anything else to try and protect them from developing MS?"
The only one that is safe, with some limited evidence, is vitamin D3 supplementation: 0-2 years of age, 600 IU/day; 2-10 years of age, 2,000 IU/day; and >10 years of age, 4,000 IU/day.
I would love my 2 adult children to be screened so they could get on trials asap. My sister & I have MS. Our Aunt died of MS in the early 80s. Our cousin has MS. I know early treatment is highly effective and prevents permanent damage caused by repeated MS attacks ( my generation!).
ok, so the only way to get rid of the problem in 2026 is not having children, which is too late for me. That is why I think the calculator is not particularly useful to me. If had known I had MS (= if I got diagnosed at the time, as a 17-year-old) I would have decided for no kids but unfortunately in a wealthy university town in western Europe with many faciliteis it took them 20 years to understand what I had. Sorry if I sound cynical
Now that you clearly imply that you identify MS as 'autoimmune' (with important practical implications), It might be a good moment to clearly define what you mean by 'autoimmunity' and to what extent the definition accepted exposes the causation of the disease. This is a very old potato and has often been a major subject of controversial debate. Is it no longer a matter of relevance to the pathogenesis of MS? Is the failure to identify a specific target antigen despite intensive studies incorporating highly effective techniques in other contexts of any important relevance? I could go on and on but I find myself insisting that my enquiring children 'define their terms' and so I am asking again, please clearly define 'autoimmunity' when the term is used (as you now often do) regarding the pathogenesis of MS.
Zamecnik CR, Sowa GM, Abdelhak A, Dandekar R, Bair RD, Wade KJ, Bartley CM, Kizer K, Augusto DG, Tubati A, Gomez R, Fouassier C, Gerungan C, Caspar CM, Alexander J, Wapniarski AE, Loudermilk RP, Eggers EL, Zorn KC, Ananth K, Jabassini N, Mann SA, Ragan NR, Santaniello A, Henry RG, Baranzini SE, Zamvil SS, Sabatino JJ Jr, Bove RM, Guo CY, Gelfand JM, Cuneo R, von Büdingen HC, Oksenberg JR, Cree BAC, Hollenbach JA, Green AJ, Hauser SL, Wallin MT, DeRisi JL, Wilson MR. An autoantibody signature predictive for multiple sclerosis. Nat Med. 2024 May;30(5):1300-1308. doi: 10.1038/s41591-024-02938-3. Epub 2024 Apr 19. PMID: 38641750; PMCID: PMC11980355.
Tengvall K, Huang J, Hellström C, Kammer P, Biström M, Ayoglu B, Lima Bomfim I, Stridh P, Butt J, Brenner N, Michel A, Lundberg K, Padyukov L, Lundberg IE, Svenungsson E, Ernberg I, Olafsson S, Dilthey AT, Hillert J, Alfredsson L, Sundström P, Nilsson P, Waterboer T, Olsson T, Kockum I. Molecular mimicry between Anoctamin 2 and Epstein-Barr virus nuclear antigen 1 associates with multiple sclerosis risk. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019 Aug 20;116(34):16955-16960. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1902623116. Epub 2019 Aug 2. PMID: 31375628; PMCID: PMC6708327.
Thomas OG, Rykaczewska U, Galešić M, van der Burgt RTM, Hallén N, Ferro F, Bronge M, Marti Z, Li Y, Riqué AH, Lin J, Krstic A, Gromadzka A, Szonder AL, Sorini C, Reina-Campos M, Sun T, Rubio Rodríguez-Kirby LA, Dumral Ö, Berglund R, Kakhki MP, Adzemovic MZ, Zeitelhofer M, Akpinar B, Tengvall K, Nilsson OB, Holmgren E, Cucuzza CS, Högelin KA, Gafvelin G, Fink K, Castelo-Branco G, Needhamsen M, Khademi M, Piehl F, Gräslund T, Alfredsson L, Lund H, Uhlén P, Kockum I, Martin R, Jagodic M, Grönlund H, Guerreiro-Cacais AO, Olsson T. Anoctamin-2-specific T cells link Epstein-Barr virus to multiple sclerosis. Cell. 2026 Jan 22;189(2):585-602.e38. doi: 10.1016/j.cell.2025.12.032. Epub 2026 Jan 13. PMID: 41534529.
Vietzen H, Kühner LM, Berger SM, Ponleitner M, Graninger M, Pistorius C, Jungbauer C, Reindl M, Saucke H, Kauth F, Wendel EM, Rostásy K, Breu M, Kornek B, Bsteh G, Berger T, Rommer P, Puchhammer-Stöckl E. Early identification of individuals at risk for multiple sclerosis by quantification of EBNA-1381-452-specific antibody titers. Nat Commun. 2025 Jul 14;16(1):6416. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-61751-9. PMID: 40659624; PMCID: PMC12259891.
'The find MS meeting did not solve early detection' Why? I am well aware of the references you have kindly forwarded. They sound as if the early detection problem is solved.
As you know, it isn't. The antibody responses to the various EBV components are not MS specific, and don't explain the pathogenesis of the processes within the CNS.
In the US, we also need to consider the possible repercussions of biomarker and genetic testing: would the results be used against people who have long-term disability insurance through their employer, or otherwise, even though they don't have a diagnosis? The same might be true for life insurance. My 74-year-old mother was diagnosed with triple-negative breast cancer last year, and my sister and I spoke with a geneticist. She wants us to get tested for the gene mutation my mother has, but I have been reluctant due to privacy issues. I have been on LTD and SSDI for over 10 years due to MS, but I am still gun-shy about this genetic testing. Thank you for your work.
Email: Prof G, why don't you design and create an MS prognostic calculator as well?
Very good idea. I have a paper-based version that I have been using for some time.
Thanks for this article. My sister and I have MS, our father had type one diabetes. My first cousin has Ms and my dad believed he had two cousins with MS and one with ME. We have identified a family line where the risk is the highest. Our family is from southwest Ireland. Should we be be putting our children on any supplements or doing anything else to try and protect them from developing MS? Many thanks for all your work on this. I will share it with my fanily.
Re: "Should we be be putting our children on any supplements or doing anything else to try and protect them from developing MS?"
The only one that is safe, with some limited evidence, is vitamin D3 supplementation: 0-2 years of age, 600 IU/day; 2-10 years of age, 2,000 IU/day; and >10 years of age, 4,000 IU/day.
Thank you for that. I appreciate it
I would love my 2 adult children to be screened so they could get on trials asap. My sister & I have MS. Our Aunt died of MS in the early 80s. Our cousin has MS. I know early treatment is highly effective and prevents permanent damage caused by repeated MS attacks ( my generation!).
ok, so the only way to get rid of the problem in 2026 is not having children, which is too late for me. That is why I think the calculator is not particularly useful to me. If had known I had MS (= if I got diagnosed at the time, as a 17-year-old) I would have decided for no kids but unfortunately in a wealthy university town in western Europe with many faciliteis it took them 20 years to understand what I had. Sorry if I sound cynical
Thanks for sharing this Prof G!!!
I have downloaded the report and I look forward to reading through this report tonight!
PS Sorry for demoting you to Dr G, I meant to type Prof G but I had a classic case of a faux pas (cheers to my MS brain, braining 🤣)
Now that you clearly imply that you identify MS as 'autoimmune' (with important practical implications), It might be a good moment to clearly define what you mean by 'autoimmunity' and to what extent the definition accepted exposes the causation of the disease. This is a very old potato and has often been a major subject of controversial debate. Is it no longer a matter of relevance to the pathogenesis of MS? Is the failure to identify a specific target antigen despite intensive studies incorporating highly effective techniques in other contexts of any important relevance? I could go on and on but I find myself insisting that my enquiring children 'define their terms' and so I am asking again, please clearly define 'autoimmunity' when the term is used (as you now often do) regarding the pathogenesis of MS.
Zamecnik CR, Sowa GM, Abdelhak A, Dandekar R, Bair RD, Wade KJ, Bartley CM, Kizer K, Augusto DG, Tubati A, Gomez R, Fouassier C, Gerungan C, Caspar CM, Alexander J, Wapniarski AE, Loudermilk RP, Eggers EL, Zorn KC, Ananth K, Jabassini N, Mann SA, Ragan NR, Santaniello A, Henry RG, Baranzini SE, Zamvil SS, Sabatino JJ Jr, Bove RM, Guo CY, Gelfand JM, Cuneo R, von Büdingen HC, Oksenberg JR, Cree BAC, Hollenbach JA, Green AJ, Hauser SL, Wallin MT, DeRisi JL, Wilson MR. An autoantibody signature predictive for multiple sclerosis. Nat Med. 2024 May;30(5):1300-1308. doi: 10.1038/s41591-024-02938-3. Epub 2024 Apr 19. PMID: 38641750; PMCID: PMC11980355.
Tengvall K, Huang J, Hellström C, Kammer P, Biström M, Ayoglu B, Lima Bomfim I, Stridh P, Butt J, Brenner N, Michel A, Lundberg K, Padyukov L, Lundberg IE, Svenungsson E, Ernberg I, Olafsson S, Dilthey AT, Hillert J, Alfredsson L, Sundström P, Nilsson P, Waterboer T, Olsson T, Kockum I. Molecular mimicry between Anoctamin 2 and Epstein-Barr virus nuclear antigen 1 associates with multiple sclerosis risk. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019 Aug 20;116(34):16955-16960. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1902623116. Epub 2019 Aug 2. PMID: 31375628; PMCID: PMC6708327.
Thomas OG, Rykaczewska U, Galešić M, van der Burgt RTM, Hallén N, Ferro F, Bronge M, Marti Z, Li Y, Riqué AH, Lin J, Krstic A, Gromadzka A, Szonder AL, Sorini C, Reina-Campos M, Sun T, Rubio Rodríguez-Kirby LA, Dumral Ö, Berglund R, Kakhki MP, Adzemovic MZ, Zeitelhofer M, Akpinar B, Tengvall K, Nilsson OB, Holmgren E, Cucuzza CS, Högelin KA, Gafvelin G, Fink K, Castelo-Branco G, Needhamsen M, Khademi M, Piehl F, Gräslund T, Alfredsson L, Lund H, Uhlén P, Kockum I, Martin R, Jagodic M, Grönlund H, Guerreiro-Cacais AO, Olsson T. Anoctamin-2-specific T cells link Epstein-Barr virus to multiple sclerosis. Cell. 2026 Jan 22;189(2):585-602.e38. doi: 10.1016/j.cell.2025.12.032. Epub 2026 Jan 13. PMID: 41534529.
Vietzen H, Kühner LM, Berger SM, Ponleitner M, Graninger M, Pistorius C, Jungbauer C, Reindl M, Saucke H, Kauth F, Wendel EM, Rostásy K, Breu M, Kornek B, Bsteh G, Berger T, Rommer P, Puchhammer-Stöckl E. Early identification of individuals at risk for multiple sclerosis by quantification of EBNA-1381-452-specific antibody titers. Nat Commun. 2025 Jul 14;16(1):6416. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-61751-9. PMID: 40659624; PMCID: PMC12259891.
'The find MS meeting did not solve early detection' Why? I am well aware of the references you have kindly forwarded. They sound as if the early detection problem is solved.
As you know, it isn't. The antibody responses to the various EBV components are not MS specific, and don't explain the pathogenesis of the processes within the CNS.
In the US, we also need to consider the possible repercussions of biomarker and genetic testing: would the results be used against people who have long-term disability insurance through their employer, or otherwise, even though they don't have a diagnosis? The same might be true for life insurance. My 74-year-old mother was diagnosed with triple-negative breast cancer last year, and my sister and I spoke with a geneticist. She wants us to get tested for the gene mutation my mother has, but I have been reluctant due to privacy issues. I have been on LTD and SSDI for over 10 years due to MS, but I am still gun-shy about this genetic testing. Thank you for your work.
Nice one PG
Mother: psoriasis arthritis
Father: none
Brother: none
Sister :Celiac disease and milk intolerance
Mother sister : asthma then t1d
Grand mother: T1d
1 cousin :asthma
niece: Astma